Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
